The war in Ukraine no longer has a clear end in sight. Instead of a swift resolution, experts now anticipate prolonged fighting, suggesting the conflict could persist until at least 2026 or even 2027. With frontlines becoming entrenched and diplomatic efforts stalled, multiple scenarios indicate a drawn-out and uncertain process.
Russia Digging In for a Long War of Attrition
Senior analysts have noted that Russia is preparing for an extended, attritional conflict rather than expecting a quick victory. According to experts cited by The Guardian, both sides are likely to remain entrenched, fighting for at least another six months, with no clear resolution on the horizon.
Could Putin’s Exit Change the Game?
Former Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov argues that peace will not arrive until Russian President Vladimir Putin steps down or passes away, describing the war as Putin’s “deeply personal obsession.” A leadership change in Russia could significantly alter the dynamics, potentially opening the path to serious negotiations.
The Possibility of a Frozen Conflict
Analysts, including those from the Institute for the Study of War, point out the realistic possibility of the conflict becoming “frozen,” with static frontlines. Under this scenario, Russia might solidify control over occupied Ukrainian territories, reducing active warfare to low-intensity skirmishes.
Diplomatic Efforts Remain Limited
Recent peace negotiations in international summits held in London, Istanbul, and Saudi Arabia have not resulted in a comprehensive peace agreement. Russian demands – particularly NATO’s withdrawal from Eastern Europe and territorial concessions – remain non-negotiable for the West and Ukraine. Reuters highlights how Putin’s inflexible stance is obstructing diplomatic breakthroughs.
Russia Faces Pressure to End the War by 2026
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia aims to end active hostilities by around 2026. Moscow worries that a prolonged conflict could weaken its global position, benefiting rival powers like the United States and China. This timeline aligns with strategic assessments presented in analyses by think tanks such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
How Long Will the West Continue Supporting Ukraine?
Forecasts suggest Western military support will continue at least through 2027. However, if support weakens prematurely, the conflict could devolve into a protracted stalemate. Ongoing U.S. and European Union aid packages remain critical, as emphasized by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in recent statements reported by NATO’s official website.
Possible Scenarios for Ending the Conflict
| Scenario | Timeline | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Long war / Frozen conflict | 2026-2027 or later | Frontlines become static; low-level fighting persists. |
| Leadership change | Uncertain (dependent on Putin’s exit) | Could open the door to meaningful peace negotiations. |
| Quick ceasefire deal | Unlikely before 2026 | Russia’s demands currently rule out a swift, stable agreement. |
What Factors Could Alter the Course of the War?
- Leadership changes in Moscow (e.g., Putin resigning or passing away).
- Significant increases or reductions in Western military aid to Ukraine.
- Diplomatic breakthroughs, especially if international coalitions offer concrete security guarantees to Ukraine, as discussed in summits like those recently held in London or Istanbul.
Summary: A Prolonged and Uncertain Road Ahead
Current analyses largely dismiss the possibility of an immediate end to the war. Short-term resolution is highly unlikely under existing conditions. Mid-term scenarios (2026-2027) are plausible, yet dependent on variables like Western support, Putin’s political fate, and Ukraine’s sustained resilience.
Most analysts now agree that a stable – though imperfect – peace will not arrive until at least 2026, barring dramatic and unforeseen developments.