Iran is on the brink of nuclear conflict, China is weighing whether to accept Trump’s offer of peace, and Germany faces a pivotal decision—one that will shape the future of the world.
The global geopolitical landscape is at a historic crossroads, presenting a rare opportunity for a shift in direction—an opportunity that could be seized under Donald Trump’s leadership in the White House.
Under Biden, U.S. foreign policy has pushed the world to the edge of World War III. Trump’s potential second term offers a chance to reset, but its success hinges on several crucial factors.
One of the most significant factors is the relationship between the United States and China.
Trump signals the beginning of a new phase, taking a significant political risk in today’s environment where anyone not opposed to China is met with suspicion in Washington. In this context, Trump’s public remarks about Xi Jinping being an “amazing man” and his belief that the U.S. and China can collaborate to solve global problems have raised eyebrows.
While Xi is known for avoiding unnecessary risks, the “fentanyl crisis” presents an opportunity for both leaders to find common ground and cooperate.
Both Trump and Xi have a stake in striking a deal, albeit for different reasons. This deal doesn’t have to be comprehensive at first—an interim agreement could help build trust, restart dialogue, and buy time for both sides.
In the Middle East, the situation is even more complex, with the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran in the first quarter of 2025.
Three rounds of Israeli strikes on the Houthis, as well as joint operations with the United States and the U.K., appear to have significantly degraded their missile and drone capabilities. The pressure on Jerusalem to take direct action against Iran will only increase.
Trump’s vision for Gaza involves relocating many of its residents to other countries, allowing him to focus on key political priorities like normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and creating a regional alliance against Iran.
Trump aims to bring Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table with Israel, something already occurring behind the scenes. The Saudis recognize that waiting for Gaza’s resolution is no longer an option, especially since Trump’s proposal to evacuate Gaza has reshuffled the political landscape. This move gives the Saudis the opportunity—and the will—to sit down and discuss Iran, while also establishing diplomatic relations with Israel.
However, Iran may have been weakened but not fully defeated, meaning groups like Hezbollah could recover, and Hamas could continue to cause problems, potentially delaying the release of hostages.
The solution could involve two parallel tracks: imposing harsh sanctions on Iran to force it into action regarding its nuclear ambitions, while Israel may issue an ultimatum—either comply with demands or face direct military action against infrastructure used by Iran’s mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards to suppress the population.
In Europe, the upcoming German elections on February 25 are a key focus. It is widely believed that a coalition between center-right and center-left parties, excluding the Green Party, would be the best outcome for both Germany and Europe. The Greens’ 15% share of the vote in the 2021 elections has granted them disproportionate influence over Germany’s governance, and many of their policies have been detrimental to the country’s economic future and global standing. A potential center-right and center-left coalition would likely be positive for both the German stock market and the euro in 2025.
The events of 2024 have shown that not all politicians are created equal. Some, like Trump, Putin, and Netanyahu, rise above the rest. Regardless of one’s political alignment, these leaders are risk-takers who play chess while others play checkers.
Europe, especially Germany, is in dire need of a global reboot. The country must regain a stable majority to regain its influence. Meanwhile, the decisive battle in the Middle East is far from over, and this will likely lead to higher geopolitical risk premiums, including rising oil prices.
Countries like Russia, Turkey, and Iran continue to seek influence in Syria and Lebanon, each with their own goals. In addition, China’s involvement will draw the United States into these tensions, with Trump ensuring that Israel maintains technological superiority, including advanced weapons once reserved only for the U.S., to preserve its strength in the region.
Trump will also ensure that countries like Egypt and Jordan remain aligned with the U.S. The shifts occurring in the Middle East could lead to peace and prosperity for all moderate nations, including Israel. With the U.S. regaining its position as the world’s preeminent power, the resulting stability will allow it to focus on other critical global strategic areas.
